NYT/SIENA: Hinojosa Ahead of Abbott One Month from Election Day

Abbott losing three independent polls with only two weeks until Early Vote polls open

AUSTIN, TX – A new NYT/Siena poll shows Gina Hinojosa up 4 points in the Texas Governor’s race (49-46%, using the candidates’ rounded vote share), marking the third poll in under three weeks showing Hinojosa beating Abbott by 3 or more points. The poll, conducted in both English and Spanish among likely voters, shows Hinojosa continuing to make gains among almost every demographic since their last poll fielded in late June. 

Key Findings:

  • Hinojosa has taken a 4-point lead at 49-46%, using the candidates’ rounded vote share, and is pulling ahead of Abbott – a 10-point swing since NYT/Siena’s June poll. Despite Abbott outspending Hinojosa by 10-to-1, Abbott “has been unable to build an insurmountable lead.”
  • Hinojosa is up 16 points with Independents (55-39%), while Abbott’s favorability among Independents has plummeted to only 38%.
  • Hinojosa has a +18 net favorability swing – the highest in the state – while Abbott continues to lose ground. 
  • Hinojosa is also pulling 8% of self-identified Republicans, twice the number she was winning in the June survey. Republicans and Independents are increasingly “breaking rank” and choosing a candidate who will fight for public schools and against billionaire data center special interests. 
  • Hinojosa is winning key demographics by more than 20 points: Latino voters (62-31%), Black voters (85-9%), voters aged 30-44 (59-35%), and young voters (62-27%).
  • Finally, in the highly watched regions of San Antonio, South Texas, and the RGV, Gina is winning by 24 points at (59-35), up 16 points from the June survey.  

“We’re leading in this race because Texans are ready for change,” said Hinojosa. “Working families deserve a governor who will deliver for them, and that’s why my plan is as simple as the promise – to secure the American Dream by saving our public schools and putting money in people’s pockets. Abbott’s attacks aren’t resonating against me because voters are tired of his corruption and culture wars dividing us. The momentum behind this campaign is real, and we’re ready to win this November.”

Since launching, Hinojosa has closed the gap from being virtually unknown at 8 points below Abbott to a consistent lead, following two months of polls showing her within the margin of error and election ratings moving the governor’s race in Hinojosa’s favor. As Texans get to know Gina, they are behind her – and her campaign’s growing momentum will take her to the Governor’s Mansion this November.

###