NEW: SIX New Polls Show Hinojosa In Virtual Tie As Name ID Increases, Abbott’s Popularity Decreases

Austin, TX – Six new polls in the last three weeks show a virtual tie in the race between Gina Hinojosa and Greg Abbott for Texas Governor. Public polls from Texas Public Opinion Research, Fox News, and Texas A&M/ReconMR/Siena show Hinojosa closing the gap from a 3-point to a 1-point race. Additional polls from BlueLabs, GBAO, and Cygnal – a GOP pollster – show the race in the margin of error as Hinojosa gains widespread popularity and Abbott moves increasingly underwater.

Key Takeaways:

  • Independent polls have Hinojosa within 1-point with less than three months left and winning in the key groups that will decide this election.
    • Hinojosa consistently leads with moderate and independent voters, in some polls by as much as +17 points with independents and +21 points with moderates.
    • She continues expanding her support among Latino voters across the state, leading in some polls as high as 38 points, which exceeds Beto O’Rourke’s high water mark in his 2022 gubernatorial race against Greg Abbott.
    • Hinojosa is consistently popular with young voters, winning voters under 30 by 43 points. Texas’ population is the second youngest in the nation behind Utah. 
    • Hinojsa consistently leads with Black voters, in some polls as high as +71 points. 
  • Momentum is firmly behind Hinojosa. Margins in public polling have gone from an 8-point race in January to 6 points in April, 5 points in May, 3 points in June, and now 1 point in both July and August.
  • The more voters get to know Hinojosa, the more they like her. Surveys consistently show she has the highest net favorability in the state, with up to +18. In October, Hinojosa’s name ID was about 30%. Every poll in the last three weeks shows her name ID between 60-80%, with the margin tightening as it grows.
  • Abbott is below 50% in nearly every recent poll – the lowest in his political career. In 2022, Abbott had a roughly +5 average margin in public polls. Now, average public polling shows a 1-3 point race.
  • Hinojosa’s message is building cross-partisan support, including 11% favorability with MAGA voters, 4% of whom say they will vote for her, winning a staggering 18% of self-identified non-MAGA GOP voters, and winning 9% of Paxton voters.
  • Multiple independent polls came before Hinojosa’s first statewide cable ad buy, meaning Hinojosa’s name ID and popularity have increased nearly solely as a result of her time crisscrossing the state, meeting voters, and sharing her economic populist vision for Texas.

“Every poll tells the same story: Texans are tired of working more and getting less,” said Hinojosa. “Working families, of every race, ethnicity and in every corner of this state are watching their bills go up, their schools get shut down, and data centers take over their communities while Greg Abbott hands billions to his donors. We hear it everywhere we go: Texans are ready for a governor who will put them first.”

These polls are showing a consistent trend in the race for governor: Texans of every background and in every region are responding to Hinojosa’s plan to secure the American Dream by saving Texas schools, putting money in every Texans’ pocket, and ending the Greg Abbott Corruption Tax – including the data center madness. Abbott has never been more vulnerable — and this race is only getting closer.

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