NEW: Three New Polls Show Abbott Stuck in the 40s as Hinojosa Closes the Gap Statewide and Surges With Latino Voters
Independent poll has the governor’s race within 5 points, with Hinojosa winning independents, moderates, and every key demographic Abbott needs to hold
Austin, TX — Three new polls have Greg Abbott in the worst position of his political career. A new independent poll from Texas Public Opinion Research has the governor’s race within 5 points, 48% to 43%, with Gina Hinojosa winning independents, moderates, Black voters, Latino voters, and young voters. A poll from Somos Votantes, conducted by Global Strategy Group, finds Hinojosa up with Latino voters statewide as frustrations grow over costs. And a poll commissioned by Pastors for Texas Children, on an electorate weighted 12 points more Republican than Democratic, still has Abbott under 50.
Key Findings:
- New independent poll has Hinojosa within 5 – leading Latinos by 22 and young voters by 49. Texas Public Opinion Research surveyed 1,018 likely general election voters from April 17–20 (+/- 3.3%) and found:
- Abbott at 48%, Hinojosa at 43%.
- Hinojosa wins independents by 13, moderates by 32, and pulls 14% of somewhat conservative voters.
- She wins Black voters by 57, Latino voters by 22, and voters 18–24 by 49.
- The poll does not include the third-party candidate, which means the actual margin is almost certainly tighter.
- Latino voters are sounding the alarm on Abbott’s affordability crisis. In the Somos Votantes poll: 75% of Texas Latino voters are concerned about inflation, 81% are concerned about gas prices, and 76% are concerned about what Texas families are being asked to shoulder. Abbott has been governor for 12 years and owns those costs.
- Even in a Republican-leaning electorate, Abbott can’t get to 50. The Pastors for Texas Children poll was modeled on a Republican-leaning electorate of 38.4% Republicans, 26.2% Democrats, and 26.4% Independents. Even in that favorable sample, Abbott is at 48.3%, Hinojosa is at 41.6%, and 8.8% is undecided. Every indication from the primary is that we will see Democratic turnout surge this fall. A two-term incumbent stuck in the 40s in that favorable an environment is an incumbent in trouble.
“Every poll tells the same story: Texans are tired of working more and getting less,” said Hinojosa. “Latino families, working families, families in every corner of this state are watching their grocery bills, their insurance premiums, and their property taxes go up while Greg Abbott hands billions to his donors. We hear it everywhere we go, Texans are ready for a governor who will put them first.”
Today’s numbers are consistent with a clear trend. Internal polling released in February showed the governor’s race within 3 points statewide. Independent polls from Emerson and the Hobby School at the University of Houston confirmed a single-digit race. In March, a Public Policy Polling survey showed Hinojosa tied with Abbott 48-48 in Texas’ 23rd Congressional District — a seat Trump carried by 15 points in 2024. Now, a Latino-focused poll shows Hinojosa crushing Abbott with Latino voters by 19 points and a statewide poll on a Republican-leaning electorate still can’t get Abbott to 50%.
Texans of every background and in every region are ready to fire Greg Abbott. Abbott has never been more vulnerable — and this race is only getting closer.
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